Tonight I decided it would be fun to build my own US Presidential Election prediction model. The goal of this is to show you how these things are built at their most basic level, and to show their limitations.
With those caveats, the goal for the model itself was to make it simple, something which most people can understand. All my source code will be included in the post. It’s only 50 lines of MATLAB code, I don’t mind if you steal it.
Continue reading “CQW’s Simple Election Model”
One of the things that I most enjoyed about reading Mencius Moldbug’s blog “Unqualified Reservations” was the use of primary source documents to analyze history. I have decided to embark upon a long-term project to investigate primary sources and to share interesting results with you on this blog. The goal of this project is to unearth counter narratives to the current narrative of historical events. My focus will be on understanding the viewpoints of those who found themselves on the proverbial “Wrong Side of History”. The long-term investigation will look at the writings of people who sat on the losing side of historical arguments in order to try understand their thought process and to judge whether or not they had valuable insights or supplied arguments that have not made their way down to today.
The first set of texts I will be examining are works of the Anti-Federalists, Founding Fathers of America who objected to the implementation of the constitution. I will be working from the Table of Contents of Storing’s The Complete Anti-Federalist. This provides more works and a differing organization to the main Anti-federalist collection which was assembled in the 1960’s. The work of the Anti-federalists were not coordinated in a way that created an easy comparison to the familiar Federalist Papers of Hamilton, Madison and Jay. Instead, they were individual essays written by dozens of Americans across the nation.
Continue reading “The Wrong Side of History: The Anti-Federalists, Gerry and Mason”